Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara and for the northwestern Bahamas. The skillful European global model keeps it fairly disorganized, and probably not quite a tropical depression, while the USA global model and high-resolution hurricane models are all indicating intensification to a tropical storm.
It formed in the Caribbean today north of Honduras.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles, mainly to the south of the center. The added wind shear will lessen the odds of tropical development. Regardless if the system develops, there will be heavy rain and breezy winds on Saturday that quickly spread up into east-central Florida by Saturday night. By Saturday, the system could bring heavy rain across parts of south Florida and the Florida Keys.
October and November storms are not unheard of.
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The worst hurricane season in years might have one more surprise in store.
The Atlantic hurricane season is slowing down, but it's not over yet.
As of Friday afternoon, a broad area of low pressure was producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms in the Western Caribbean Sea between Nicaragua and Jamaica.
These cyclones typically move northeastward from the Caribbean or western Atlantic ahead of sweeping cold fronts from North America. An upper-level low remains to the west of the trough just south of Puerto Rico, while drier air from the cold front that passed earlier in the week still in place over the northern portions of Cuba and the Bahamas. The Cayman Islands National Weather Service advised that flooding may occur in low-lying areas.